Monday, July 26, 2004

Dorell Wright - Part 2

OK, let's take the few basic stats we have of Dorell and see if we can find anyone comparable. We're starting with a 6-7, 200-pound (splitting the difference), 18-year-old who was picked with the 19th pick in the draft. In the spirit of the upcoming Olympics, I'll rank them with medals. Here we go!

Gold - Travis Outlaw. Travis is 6-9, 210 pounds, and was taken with the 23rd pick by the Portland Trailblazers last year (Remember the joke? Why do the Blazers need another Outlaw?). He's a little taller than Wright, and taken a little later, but he came out of high school, so he's an excellent match. The bad news? Last season, Travis was on the court for 19 MINUTES of NBA ball.

Silver - Deshawn Stevenson. Out of high school, a little shorter at 6-5, and taken with the 23rd pick. He's turning into a pretty good player, with the most comparable at his current age (according to basketball reference.com) being Ricky Davis. Deshawn played only 293 minutes as a rookie.

Bronze - Al Harrington. Not a really good fit, because he's much bigger (2 inches and 30 pounds), and he was picked later, at 25th. He played 160 minutes his first year.

And now, how about some good news?

Runner-Up - Kobe Bryant. Bryant was taken with the 13th pick, the same 6 picks away from Wright's 19 spot as Harrington. He's also 6-6 and 220, right around Wright's size. Bryant had great success relative to the other's, playing over 1,100 minute and averaging 7.6 points per game. However,the reason why Kobe didn't medal here is because even though its only 6 picks difference between Kobe at 13 and Dorell at 19, I think there's generally a much bigger gap in talent between 13 and 19 than 19 and 25. Also, Kobe was drafted at 13 during a time when there had been no smaller players drafted coming out of high school, and I'm sure there were many teams that recognized his talent that were skittish about that.

So there you have it. Dorell Wright's ceiling is probably Kobe's 7.6 points per game, but I would have to say he's much more likely to be like those others before him, riding the pine the whole year. Having said that, it doesn't make Wright a bad draft pick. He has a world of talent, and more importantly, the Heat had no idea that they would be landing Shaquille O'Neil. Still, you have to wonder, if the draft were held today, would they have drafted Wright, or Jameer Nelson, the senior point guard from St. Joe's? Either way, it will be interesting to watch Wright's progress.

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